It was the American writer and entrepreneur Mark Twain who said:
“Prophesy is a good line of business, but it is full of risks.”
So, as we turn our backs on a frankly dreadful 2018 for crypto markets and face 2019, it’s firstly time for us to see who is taking the risk to stick their neck out on crypto price predictions, and secondly for us to note what we see as being key drivers for the market.
Let’s begin with predictions.
Mike Novogratz (the ex-Goldman Sachs billionaire fund manager and founder of Galaxy Digital) has given various predictions throughout 2018 which have been scrutinised, particularly as some of these have been less than accurate. Nevertheless, in a recent soundbite he suggests that it’s realistic to expect Bitcoin to reach $20,000 next year. Sonny Singh (CCO of Bitcoin payment service provider Bitpay) is also quoted as saying, in line with Mike Novogratz, that a price point of $20,000 is reasonable for Bitcoin in 2019.
Calvin Ayre (Founder of Bitcoin Cash and now figurehead of Bitcoin SV) believes that Bitcoin will go to zero in 2019. This doesn’t reflect an overall bearish attitude towards crypto but more a belief that Bitcoin has now been superseded by more scalable technology and solutions.
John McAfee, the founder of the popular McAfee software and an ardent Bitcoin follower predicted that Bitcoin will hit $1 million by 2020 following last year’s prediction of $7000 which was well surpassed.
Fundstrat’s Sam Doctor and ex-Chief Equity Strategist in JP Morgan, Tom Lee, believe that the break-even cost of mining 1 BTC directly correlates with the price of the cryptocurrency. Lee said that BTC would grow as he is counting on more institutional investors taking on Bitcoin and a steady increase in Bitcoin user base. He justified the current fall in the price of bitcoin by referring to the recent plunge in the price of tech stocks, like Amazon, Apple, and Facebook.
Zhao Dong, one of the biggest Bitcoin OTC traders in China and an influencer recently predicted that Bitcoin might reach $50,000 by 2021. He reiterated that now is the best time to invest in BTC and said that you might get a yield of 100 to 200% over 3 years if you invest now.
VC billionaire Tim Draper believes the value of Bitcoin will keep going higher in the upcoming years. He said he believes virtual currencies will eventually overtake fiat currency, making up two-thirds of the world’s currency value.
On the other hand, the billionaire investor and venture capitalist Jim Breyer believes that the promise offered by the technology is too great for it to be permanently buried by short-term market movements. Breyer kept saying that the technology is too big to be dismissed just because of a temporary bear market. He warned that “we’re close to a nuclear winter right now with cryptocurrency.”